Insights from The Commercial Property Network’s Investment Panel
By Mark Minchell, Chair of the Investment Panel
Today, as we convened for the latest meeting of The Commercial Property Network’s Investment Panel, it became clear that we are entering a pivotal phase in the commercial property market. The consensus among our experts is cautiously optimistic, reflecting a broader sentiment that, despite recent challenges, there are numerous opportunities for astute investors. Here are some of the key insights and recommendations discussed:
Stabilisation in Property Prices
Our panel agrees that the majority of price adjustments in the commercial property sector have already occurred. Currently, we are likely at the market’s nadir, with expectations of price increases over the next 6 to 12 months. This suggests that the period of significant drops in property values has passed, and we are now beginning to see the early signs of recovery. For investors, this might be the right time to consider entering the market, as the potential for capital appreciation looks promising.
Retail Sector Revival
There is positive news from the retail sector, particularly in premium locations, where rental adjustments have stabilised. We’ve observed a solid demand from occupiers, indicating a revival in this segment. Investors should take note of these developments, as strong occupier demand in strong retail locations presents an opportunity for both rent and value increases.
Political and Economic Climate
With a general election on the horizon, conventional wisdom might suggest a wait-and-see approach. However, our panel advises against hesitancy. The political landscape is poised for change, and with inflation tapering to a manageable 2.3%, the economic outlook is improving. These factors combined suggest that now is the time to act, rather than delay. A proactive approach could benefit buyers, especially with the anticipated ‘bounce’ post-election in July.
Interest Rates and Foreclosures
Looking ahead, the anticipation of interest rate cuts over the next 18 months adds another layer of incentive for entering the market now. Lower interest rates would likely enhance borrowing conditions and stimulate further investment in the sector.
In terms of foreclosures, observations through our auction house members indicate limited foreclosure activity and expectations of minimal increase in the coming year and primarily focused on the residential sector. This environment is partially due to banks adopting more proactive strategies in managing these assets. By collaborating with mortgagors, banks are helping to prevent market flooding and downward price spirals, thus providing stability in the market.
A Call to Action for Investors
The current market conditions, combined with a favourable economic forecast, present a strategic window for investors. Those who choose to invest now, rather than waiting for further signs of stability, are likely to benefit from the early stages of recovery. As prices begin to rise, the opportunity for significant gains will diminish.
In conclusion, while challenges remain, the prospects within the commercial property sector are brightening. By understanding the current dynamics and acting strategically, investors can position themselves advantageously for the next growth phase in the property market. As we look to the future, the key will be to remain vigilant, adaptable, and ready to seize opportunities as they arise.